Some Reasonable Goals for NAEP Scores

The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) tests students in reading and math at 4th and 8th grades.

Table I displays initial main NAEP scores, the latest scores (2024), the highest score ever attained, scores from 2019 (pre-pandemic), and the number of scale score points needed to regain 2019 and all-time highs. The final two columns can be considered reasonable goals: first, regaining 2019 levels in all four subject-grade tests; second, matching test score all-time highs. I describe these goals as reasonable because they have been accomplished before by U.S. students. Others may have more ambitious goals, but first things first.

Table 1. Selected NAEP Data (scale scores), 1990-2024

	First Test (Year)	2024	All Time High (Year)	2019	To Regain 2019	To Regain All Time High
4^th Grade Reading	217¹ (1992)	215	223 (2015)	220	5	8
4^th Grade Math	213¹ (1990)	237	242 (2013)	241	4	5
8^th Grade Reading	260¹ (1992)	258	268 (2013)	263	5	10
8^th Grade Math	263¹ (1990)	274	285 (2013)	282	8	11

^{1 Accommodations not permitted}

Table 2 focuses on regaining pre-pandemic, 2019 levels. The second column reports how many scale points are needed (reproducing data presented in Table 1), followed by two tools for interpreting the magnitude of scale scores. The third column reports the largest historical gain on successive NAEP tests, and the fourth column expresses the needed gains as standard deviations of 2019 scores.

Table 2. What Would It Take To Regain 2019 (Pre-Pandemic) Scale Scores?

	Scale Score Gain Needed	Largest Gain (Years)	Gain Needed in 2019 SD Units
4^th Grade Reading	5	5 (00-02)	0.13
4^th Grade Math	4	9 (00-03)	0.13
8^th Grade Reading	5	4 (94-98)	0.13
8^th Grade Math	8	6 (90-92)	0.20

2019 SDs: 4R (39), 4M (32), 8R (38), 8M (40).

Note: Scores may not reflect data reported elsewhere due to rounding.